For more than three decades, the global economy was built on a powerful assumption: that deeper economic integration would naturally foster stability, prosperity and peace. Governments lowered trade barriers, companies fragmented production across continents, and efficiency became the defining principle of globalization. Strategic considerations rarely dictated where to manufacture a semiconductor, refine a critical mineral or assemble an electric vehicle. Markets, rather than geopolitics, were expected to determine those choices.
That assumption is no longer sustainable. The COVID-19 pandemic first exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how energy could once again become a geopolitical weapon. The technological rivalry between the United States and China has since accelerated a broader transformation in which semiconductors, rare earths, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing have become matters of national security as much as commercial competitiveness. Governments increasingly intervene where, only a decade ago, markets operated largely on their own.
Economic security has therefore moved from the margins of public policy to its very centre. Industrial policy has returned. Export controls, investment screening, strategic stockpiles and supply-chain diversification are no longer exceptional measures but permanent features of international economic relations. Countries that once competed primarily through lower production costs now compete to secure technological leadership, industrial resilience and reliable access to critical resources.
Businesses have been forced to adapt just as rapidly. Boardrooms increasingly discuss geopolitical risk alongside financial performance. Decisions about where to build factories, source components or develop new technologies are no longer driven exclusively by labour costs or market opportunities. Political stability, regulatory predictability and the resilience of supply networks have become equally decisive factors. Geography has once again become a strategic asset.
This transformation should not be misunderstood as the end of globalization. Trade, investment and international cooperation remain indispensable to global prosperity. What is emerging instead is a more selective and security-conscious form of globalization, where efficiency is increasingly balanced against resilience, and where economic interdependence is carefully managed rather than simply expanded. The challenge for governments will be to strengthen national security without undermining the openness that has supported decades of economic growth.
The age of economic security has already begun. It is reshaping diplomacy, redefining business strategy and transforming the international order with remarkable speed. Understanding this new landscape requires abandoning outdated assumptions about the separation between economics and geopolitics. Today, they have become inseparable. And the countries and companies best prepared for the years ahead will not necessarily be those that produce at the lowest cost, but those that understand that resilience has become one of the world’s most valuable strategic assets.
