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Takaichi’s honne and tatemae

Takaichi’s honne and tatemae

When Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks to international audiences, the message is clear. Japan is presented as an open, reliable and technologically advanced partner, committed to economic security, resilient supply chains and deeper cooperation with like-minded democracies. In her recent article in the Financial Times, Takaichi portrayed a country ready to play a leading role in strategic initiatives such as the Global Combat Air Programme, alongside the United Kingdom and Italy, while positioning Japan as a key node in the emerging architecture of economic and technological security in the Indo-Pacific. Yet the Japan promoted abroad does not always correspond…
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Princess Aiko and the politics of continuity in modern Japan

Princess Aiko and the politics of continuity in modern Japan

Urmas Teder, journalist. Few institutions embody continuity in Japan more profoundly than the Imperial Household. For centuries, the Chrysanthemum Throne has served as a symbol of historical continuity, cultural identity and national cohesion through periods of profound political and social transformation. Yet the debate surrounding the future role of Princess Aiko has revealed that continuity itself may require adaptation if the institution is to preserve its legitimacy in the decades ahead. The question of whether Japan should allow a woman to ascend the throne is often framed as a clash between tradition and modernity. In reality, the issue is more…
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The Takaichi scandal and the politics of denial under pressure

The Takaichi scandal and the politics of denial under pressure

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is facing growing political pressure following allegations that members of her campaign team were involved in the dissemination of anonymous online videos targeting political rivals during recent party primaries and national elections. While she has firmly denied any involvement, leaked audio recordings from internal online meetings appear to show discussions consistent with the coordination of such activity, intensifying scrutiny from opposition parties. The controversy has now moved beyond questions of campaign ethics and into a more sensitive institutional terrain: the credibility of official denial in the face of accumulating evidence. At the centre of the…
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The sea as critical global infrastructure

The sea as critical global infrastructure

The Island States Ocean Summit highlights a quiet but structural shift in global governance: the growing economic and strategic relevance of small island states within the ocean economy. Long framed primarily through the lens of climate vulnerability, these countries are increasingly emerging as relevant actors in infrastructure management, maritime regulation, and the governance of trade routes that underpin global commerce. The ocean can no longer be understood solely as a geographic or environmental space. It functions as critical infrastructure for the global economy. Around 80% of world trade moves by sea, passing through corridors that intersect with the exclusive economic…
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A structural collapse, not a trend

A structural collapse, not a trend

Urmas Teder, journalist. Japan’s demographic decline is no longer a warning sign or a statistical curiosity. It has become a sustained contraction of the population base itself, with implications that extend far beyond social policy. Last year, the country recorded 671,236 births, the tenth consecutive annual decline, confirming a trajectory that has proven remarkably resistant to policy intervention. The imbalance with mortality figures is now the defining feature of Japan’s demographic profile. In 2025, deaths reached 1,589,489, resulting in a natural population loss of just over 900,000 people. This is not an isolated peak but part of a pattern that…
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Building a fortress while inviting guests

Building a fortress while inviting guests

For years, Japan has been trying to solve a complex equation: it needs more workers, more engineers, more researchers, and more international talent than at any other point in its recent history. The demographic decline is no longer a long-term projection but a daily reality already affecting entire sectors of the economy. The government’s technological and industrial ambitions increasingly depend on its ability to attract foreign professionals capable of sustaining competitiveness in fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure. Yet the package of reforms approved in the Diet last week points in a direction that does not always…
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The Marcos visit reveals a larger shift in Asian geopolitics

The Marcos visit reveals a larger shift in Asian geopolitics

When Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. arrived in Tokyo last week, the images followed a familiar diplomatic script: official meetings, joint statements and renewed commitments to closer cooperation. Yet the significance of the visit extends well beyond bilateral relations. It offers a glimpse into a broader transformation taking place across the Indo-Pacific, where strategic partnerships are increasingly being shaped by economic security, technological competition and shifting geopolitical realities. For much of the post-war era, Japan's engagement with Southeast Asia was primarily economic. Trade, investment and development assistance formed the backbone of its regional presence. Today, however, Tokyo is pursuing a…
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Zero tolerance for foreigners, flexible rules for themselves

Zero tolerance for foreigners, flexible rules for themselves

Urmas Teder, journalist. Japan’s nationalist right has spent years demanding discipline from everyone else. Foreign residents are told to integrate flawlessly, migrant workers are expected to obey every administrative detail, and asylum seekers are increasingly treated as potential security risks rather than vulnerable individuals. The message has been relentless: rules matter, order matters, and those who fail to comply do not belong. That rhetoric becomes harder to defend when some of the same political movements preaching “Japanese discipline” begin facing accusations of unpaid obligations, financial irregularities or opaque internal practices themselves. The contradiction is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. A…
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Strategic necessity replaces historical memory in Seoul

Strategic necessity replaces historical memory in Seoul

A few years ago, few in Seoul would have imagined Sanae Takaichi arriving in South Korea as the face of regional pragmatism. Long associated with the nationalist wing of Japanese politics and frequently criticised for her positions on historical memory, Takaichi represented precisely the kind of leadership many South Koreans feared could push bilateral relations back into permanent confrontation. Yet her recent visit to Seoul suggests something important is changing in Northeast Asia: strategic necessity is beginning to override ideological instinct. The shift has less to do with reconciliation than with pressure. China and Russia have accelerated their alignment with…
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The shield that risks becoming a wall

The shield that risks becoming a wall

Japan has spent recent years redefining its role in the global economy through the lens of economic security. From semiconductor supply chains to critical infrastructure, data governance and advanced technologies, Tokyo has moved decisively to reduce vulnerabilities in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment. The objective is clear: to protect national capabilities in an era of strategic competition. Yet beneath this coherent strategic narrative lies a growing tension. The very framework designed to safeguard economic sovereignty risks, if not carefully calibrated, undermining the competitiveness it seeks to preserve. The expansion of Japan’s Economic Security Promotion Act and the rollout of stricter…
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