Two decades ago, tiny Andorra in Europe received double visitors than Japan. Today, the roles have shifted: as Japan surpasses 33 million annual visitors and sets its sights on 60 million by 2030, and now the Mediterranean coast is confronting the social and physical limits of its model. This contrast illustrates Japan’s pivot toward tourism as a cornerstone of its economic and diplomatic strategy.
However, beneath the soaring numbers lies a profound challenge. Faced with an unprecedented demographic decline and a shrinking workforce, Japan increasingly relies on foreign spending to keep local economies—particularly in rural areas—alive. Toshinori Tanaka, Associate Professor at Kyushu University and an expert in sustainable tourism, warns that this rapid opening carries risks for cultural identity. From the gridlocked buses of Kyoto to the reckless ascents of Mount Fuji, the symptoms of overtourism are mounting. Tanaka advocates for a smarter, data-driven approach inspired by cities like Barcelona, seeking a delicate equilibrium between economic prosperity and civic well-being.
The Japanese government aims for 60 million annual tourists by 2030. What are the primary opportunities and risks associated with this goal?
Japan has entered an era of rapid aging and demographic contraction. Historically, over 90% of our tourists were domestic, but the shrinking population and the aging of the baby-boomer generation are causing domestic demand to plummet. Attracting international visitors is no longer an option; it is a necessity to sustain our tourism industry.
According to government data, the spending of just six or seven international tourists equals the annual economic contribution of one Japanese resident. In rural regions, where maintaining public infrastructure is becoming increasingly difficult, these “temporary residents” are vital for survival.
The risk, however, lies in Japan’s unique social fabric. Our culture values mutual respect and unspoken manners—clean streets, silent queues, and communal calm during disasters—without the need for heavy policing. Many residents now find the disregard for these norms by some visitors—such as littering or disruptive behavior—unacceptable. This is creating a social rift between those who profit from tourism and those who only experience its inconveniences.
The strain is visible in icons like Kyoto, Nara, and Mount Fuji. What are the most critical issues currently facing these areas?
In Kyoto, the situation is dire: locals often cannot board city buses because of the crowds. Elderly residents are forced to take taxis to hospitals or city offices because public transport is saturated. This causes extreme psychological stress.
On Mount Fuji, we see a rise in reckless “bullet climbing”—hikers attempting the ascent without proper equipment or overnight rest. When they get stranded, they rely on Japan’s free rescue services, leading to public outcry over the misuse of taxpayer money. Furthermore, in Nara, the sacred deer—protected as messengers of the gods—are occasionally subjected to mistreatment by visitors, which is perceived as an unforgivable cultural affront.
You have cited Barcelona’s regulation of sites like Park Güell. Is it realistic to implement such restrictive measures in Japan?
For sites with clearly defined ownership, reservation systems are entirely feasible. In fact, Japan has successfully used these for decades at sites like the Katsura Imperial Villa and the “Moss Temple” (Saihō-ji). We are seeing a nationwide trend toward pre-booked access and permits to manage crowds effectively.
Are Tokyo and Kyoto showing signs of gentrification similar to Venice or Barcelona?
Absolutely. In Tokyo’s shitamachi (traditional downtown) areas like Asakusa, residents are being displaced by economic pressure, altering the neighborhood’s character. In Kyoto, the conversion of traditional machiya (wooden townhouses) into tourist rentals is eroding the very atmosphere that draws people to the city in the first place.
Japan often sees a high volume of visitors but limited financial return due to a lack of tourism taxes. Should the fiscal model be overhauled?
The shift is already happening. While accommodation taxes were once limited to hubs like Tokyo and Kyoto, they are rapidly expanding to mid-sized cities. We also anticipate the “Sayonara Tax” (International Passenger Service Facility Charge) could rise from 1,000 yen to as much as 5,000 yen.
In tourism science, we discuss the “leakage effect.” Since Japan imports much of its energy and food, tourism profits can easily flow out of the country. Therefore, it is essential that visitors contribute directly to the maintenance of the advanced infrastructure they utilize.
Can technology -big data and regulated access- secure a sustainable future for Japanese tourism?
Indisputably. Implementing pre-booking systems, much like the Sagrada Família or Park Güell, is essential for saturated sites. This doesn’t just manage crowds; it generates big data, which is a fundamental pillar for long-term preservation and sustainable management.
